Razor's Edge: More Mclovin & Some Doximity Thoughts

To be honest at this point you can't say much other than the recent short-analysis is just flat out wrong.

I'd say the Doximity short thesis is maybe 1000x better than the Applovin stuff if you just focus on the analytical element of it, and that's a strong statement seeing as I'm not even questioning Doximity's success in pharma.

This twitter thread covers some of the stuff I raised on App/MW report but in far greater detail and from a person who clearly has expert knowledge on this topic.

Anyway, just assume Mclovin in gaming is exactly what it appears to be, and really there are only two questions on this biz going fwd...

1) How big is this TAM?

2) Can competition disrupt them?

The first one is honestly the biggest problem for this stock because its effectively a mystery as axon 2.0 really has created addressable market that simply wasn't there before.

The second one is something every investor is kind of used to and capable of tracking, and thus far Mclovin has crushed on this question.

Mclovin trades at 35x TTM Adj Ebitda with that EBITDA growing 100%.

If the ads biz decels to 20% the stock will go to 10x EBITDA, and that's because the general sense from the smart bulls is this is more of an adtech hedge fund.

So, you are growing at least 40% in 2025 just on basic tailwind math and checks now and thus things really need to grind down for that decel. That said with no way of measuring the size of this market and the structure of the model; i don't think anyone would be surprised by that. Hence why a better read on ecom would be helpful and so far that read has been good. I think failed short reports can really help a biz with investors, but again I'm not sure that matters here as longs really get this name by now. Im doing some more ecom work right now...let's see what i figure out.

As for Docs vs this, Doximity is at 46x TTM EBITDA and like 35x fwd. Keep in mind the company has actually told you that they are VERY VERY deeply penetrated in their TAM as fas as Doctors/NP'S/PA'S go. And some Pharma's openly saying they at a ceiling with them digital channel budget wise. So forget the color from pharma on AI and spend, if you just saw things the same you should be short.

Again, this is investing analysis about how something is being valued which is what we are supposed to be doing. So arguing this should be trading at a discount to App on ebitda multiple business is kind of common sense if you ask me at this point. And if you have compelling data on doctor engagement trends/ direct ai marketing tools/ and macro pharma spend expectations will you now have a very robust short thesis.

That's the name of the game.