Death of Covid Trade- (Feb 4-2020)

Death of Covid Trade

I’ve been following this site tracker data wise/predictions. It’s very interesting.

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Just as exponential growth is underestimated I think right now death of covid is seriously being mispriced. If this forecasting proves accurate we are about to see a serious 180 in how the pandemic end game is expected to play out. I can see Covid being declared dead by Memorial Day.

For all the excitement this might cause about a booming economy; I actually expect it to be net painful for market.

I like three trades from a sensible risk/reward manner on the back of this thesis. (If you really want to speculate, there is a lot u can do obviously) But here is what I’m going to allocate too. Note the horizon of this is now to Memorial day. The BA calls are a month early cause I think we will get pricing moving well in advance, but generally this is the window I’m looking at. As to why Tesla here….simple it’s the biggest winner of covid liquidity…..and thus a source of funds….literally has nothing to do with what the company does or any of my opinions on autonomy.

BA April 250 calls- Stock rallies 45%

TSLA SHORT- Stock falls 30%

BKNG LONG- Stock rallies 30%